Leading Investments Group

玖傳資本集團

美商玖傳資本集團
600 Anton Blvd.,
Costa mesa, CA
United States
info@liglobal99.com

News & Resources

Client letters

January 2011

到2010年，我們客戶的taxabel account 的平均年回報率是17％。Non-taxable account 的平均上漲了26％。

這些結果進行比較，以“標準普爾是高達16％，並在平均對沖基金回報達19％，~華爾街日報指出。這使得我們不知道為什麼“專業的投資者”是如此渴望要付對沖基金所收取的高額費用？

May 2011

Most investors take comfort from calm, steadily rising markets; roiling markets can drive investor panic. But these conventional reactions are inverted. When all feels calm and prices surge, the markets may feel safe; but, in fact, they are dangerous because few investors are focusing on risk. When one feels in the pit of one's stomach the fear that a companies plunging market prices, risk-taking becomes considerably less risky, because risk is often priced into an asset's lower market valuation. A correction in the market is shaping up in the coming months.

August 2011

在目前的經濟條件下，風險已成為金融市場和投資的固有的一部分。領航國際所使用的方法是基於對市場的深入研究和運用資源，以幫助避免風險或降低特定風險的負面影響。我們之前所提醒的市場下跌已然發生，相信投資人有心理準備。但我們認為，歐洲風暴只是修正的藉口，畢竟去年教開始了。年底應該會趨穩。

December 2011

When written in Chinese the word “crisis” is composed of two characters. One represents “danger”, and the other represents “opportunity”. This is the most accurate way I can express my thoughts and feelings about the coming year in the commodities markets. Volatile, unpredictable yet scattered with times of great opportunity. The prophecy of the world ending in 2012 seems ever more relevant when we look at a world flirting with potential disaster. 2011 saw an avalanche of economic and geopolitical events, as well as natural disasters. All of which had negative impacts for commodities demand. The events of the “Arab Spring” re-invigorated fears of instability in the Middle East, the devastating Tsunami in Japan sent a domino effect along the manufacturing supply chains, the already fragile US recovery appeared to be losing momentum, in China the tightening of monetary policy heightened fears of a hard landing and finally European sovereign debt issues continued to escalate. So what does 2012 hold in store for us?

We believe oil to be an outperformer, while precious metals make a comeback.

January 2013

2013：充滿暗礁的一年，不過仍會大幅成長

在我們成功的預測了去年美國房市的反彈，今年對於美國房市和股市我們相對偏保守。股市在下半年才會有亮眼的成績。

過去的兩年我們的操作提高了對於美國營建股和高股息公司的投資，但短期強力反彈的市場（以及相對的衰退投報率），讓美國以外的市場更誘人。

簡單的數據：去年的股息，總現金支出上漲了18％。 S&P500裡頭有400多家公司（80％）支付了股息。

這是一個好消息，但壞消息是這支付率（支付股息/ GAAP每股收益）仍然是低得驚人的36％，遠低於歷史平均水平的52％！

為什麼這麼低呢？

簡單的說，因為絕大多數的公司不肯支付。最特別的是，投資者也沒有要求他們付出更多股息！在八成S＆P500公司裡，這些公司支付的平均股息大約收益率2.6％。乍聽下有點低，特別是對中國人民幣現有利率來說，不過在整體上仍是相當不錯的。因為投資者不會有很多其他的選擇，例如，美國10年期國債的收益率為1.9％。

但這些公司也無法支付更多，因為他們仍然不知道會有什麼事情發生在2013年。畢竟低效率的政府已經增加了今年度的風險。

新興市場一吐怨氣！

在美國以外，我們所看到的跡象，經濟表現較好，特別是在像中國這樣的新興市場。最新的數據：中國表示，該國正在從經濟衰退中恢復過來，加速製造水平於金融改革。

從投資的角度來看，我們要指出的是，儘管新興市場近期有強力反彈，新興市場繼續相對便宜。我們的分析表明，新興市場有20％和25％的相對折扣對於已開發市場。特別是中國，看起來相當便宜。在這個背景下，2013 我們建議投資者超重南歐和中國股市的投資。

May 2014

The bull market has now gone 31 months without a 10% correction. At some point, we’re bound to see one (perhaps caused by an inflation scare), but for now, we would argue that stocks still have room to move higher. Below are reasons to remain constructive toward equities, and we think it is worth sharing some of them:

Not being in equities is akin to fighting the Fed and nearly every other central bank.
Inflation is low and inflationary expectations are subdued.
Cash-rich companies are looking for ways to enhance share prices.
The federal budget deficit is declining.
Commodity prices are well contained.
U.S. energy production is growing.
Manufacturing is undergoing a renaissance.
P/E ratios in the high teens are reasonable at current inflation levels.
Few investors are enthusiastic about the bull market.

In short, investors are more concerned about minimizing volatility than about maximizing returns. Although the trade deficit widened, adding modest downside risk to second quarter GDP growth. And with consumer price inflation hitting 2%, concerns may start brewing about whether we are in the early stages of an inflation cycle. All adds to treating any near term correction as buying opportunities.

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